Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine was to avoid Bangladesh situation if Putin got toppled after the Ukraine war defeat

Modi met Ukraine's Zelenskyy during the G7 summit in May last year

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine this week and meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the two countries announced Monday. This is weeks after he met President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

Tanmaya Lal, a senior official at the Ministry of External Affairs, said at a briefing in New Delhi that Modi will visit Ukraine on Zelenskyy’s invitation on Friday. He said the visit would allow the two leaders to discuss cooperation in defence, economic and business ties, science and technology, and other sectors.

Ukraine’s Presidential Office also announced Modi’s trip, saying it’s his first visit during which two leaders will sign multiple cooperation documents and discuss “matters of bilateral and multilateral cooperation.”

Modi’s trip to Ukraine comes a month after Zelenskyy criticised his two-day visit to Moscow in July, when he met with Putin on the day Russian missiles struck across Ukraine, killing scores of people.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin embrace during an informal meeting at Novo-Ogaryovo residence, outside Moscow, Russia, on Monday, July 8, 2024 [Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP]

Zelenskyy had described the meeting as a “huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.” He also chided Modi for hugging Putin during their meeting.

Modi did not address the strikes directly during his trip but alluded to the bloodshed while speaking about his meeting with Putin.

“Be it war, a struggle or a terrorist attack, every person who believes in humanity, when there is loss of life, he is pained,” Modi said then. “When innocent children are killed when we see innocent children dying, then the heart pains. And that pain is very horrible.”

PM Narendra Modi with his Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina (File Photo)

India has avoided condemning Russia’s invasion and instead has urged Russia and Ukraine to resolve the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy.

“The conflict is ongoing, and we believe that the resolution can only come through dialogue and diplomacy,” Lal said on Monday. He said, “India has consistently advocated for diplomacy and dialogue to reach a negotiated settlement.”

Under Modi, New Delhi seeks to deepen its relationship with the West while keeping ties with Moscow, a major defence supplier for India. Given the countries’ partnership dating back to the Cold War, he has carefully avoided rubbing Moscow the wrong way.

India has also become a key buyer of Russian oil following sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies, which shut most Western markets off to Russian exports. According to analysts, India now gets more than 40% of its oil imports from Russia.

The U.S. has also raised concerns over India’s relationship with Russia, primarily when Washington seeks to strengthen ties with New Delhi as a counterweight to China.

At the time of Modi’s Moscow visit, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan had cautioned New Delhi that “a bet on Russia as a long-term, reliable partner is not a good bet.” The U.S. was also concerned with the timing of Modi’s visit as it came in the middle of the NATO Summit in Washington, where the West moved to bolster Ukraine.

Retrieving the Ukraine war means Putin will suffer a downfall.

The “Russia loses” scenario is especially hazardous in that Putin characterises Ukraine as a war against the US and NATO – and polling suggests that most Russians believe him. For him, defeat is unacceptable since it would imply Russia’s wider defeat by America and could result in his overthrow. If cornered, this cowardly skunk would blame the West and take everyone down with him.

For different reasons, the prospect of Ukraine losing the war is similarly alarming. The human consequences would be terrifying, with millions more refugees fleeing westwards. If Bucha and Mariupol were any guide, atrocities, war crimes, and abductions would proliferate. A victorious Putin might try to seize the entire country – or impose a settlement and a puppet regime. In any event, Ukraine’s independent existence as a free nation would cease. Its democracy and EU aspirations would be extinguished.

Ukraine’s defeat would have lasting global repercussions, setting a dreadful precedent of seizing territory by force.

The impact on Europe would be dire. A Russian success would undoubtedly be viewed in Poland and the three Baltic states as a prelude to new expansionist wars of aggression. Pro-western Moldova, on Ukraine’s southern border, is a likely target. Massive economic disruption and an arms race would ensue as NATO and the EU scrambled to boost Europe’s defences. Far-right and pro-Russia populist parties would be encouraged.

But in the chaotic fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s grasp on power appears much less secure, former intelligence officers told Global Defense Corp. 

The faltering invasion has prompted criticism of the Russian president that would have previously been unthinkable. 

Avoid Bangladesh situation

Bangladesh’s main opposition parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami, have traditionally favoured closer ties with China and Pakistan over India.

China’s influence in Bangladesh has been powerful in terms of defense cooperation. In May, the People’s Liberation Army said it would conduct a joint military exercise with the Bangladesh Armed Forces. According to official data, from 2019 to 2023, Bangladesh was the second-largest recipient of Chinese arms exports after Pakistan, with 11 percent.

Bangladesh protests widen to target top officials appointed during Sheikh Hasina’s rule.

The situation in Bangladesh adds to a series of setbacks for India in its regional diplomacy.

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