According to open-source intelligence analysts, satellite imagery has revealed that a recent Russian test of the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) failed.
The test, which took place on Saturday at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northwest Russia, appears to have resulted in the missile exploding in its launch silo, leaving a massive crater and causing significant damage to the test site.
An open source analyst active on X, formerly Twitter, @MeNMyRC, first reported the incident on Saturday. “As is readily apparent, the RS-28 Sarmat test was a complete failure. The missile detonated in the silo leaving a massive crater and destroying the test site,” the user posted, alongside satellite imagery provided by Planet Labs.
The post suggested the explosion could have occurred during the fueling process rather than during the launch itself.
Supporting this theory, @MeNMyRC noted the absence of NATO’s “Cobra Ball” reconnaissance aircraft during the event, which would typically monitor such launches. Their absence indicates it never launched.
“Neither Cobra Ball was noted flying during the Firms data indicated heat events,” the analyst said. Cobra Ball aircraft are specially equipped to track ballistic missile launches, but no such flights were recorded at the time of the explosion.
The Sarmat, which Russia had heralded as a key component of its strategic nuclear deterrent, was first successfully tested in April 2022.
However, since that test, Russia has faced repeated difficulties in its missile development program.
This latest incident marks the fourth unsuccessful test of the Sarmat ICBM, despite Russian claims that the missile had already been placed on “combat alert,” according to United24Media.
Further analysis shared by two satellites suggested the explosion may have triggered a nearby forest fire, with satellite data showing heat signatures from the area after the failed test.
“NOAA-20 and the SUOMI NPP satellites have two detections as they cross the area in their orbits,” @MeNMyRC posted. It added that it was unclear whether the fire was incidental or caused by the explosion.
The report comes only days after Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, warned that Moscow’s nuclear weapons are at “full combat readiness.”
According to Tass, a Russian state news agency, Lavrov said in an interview with Sky News Arabia that “We talk about red lines, expecting that our assessments, statements will be heard by intelligent, decision-making people. It is not serious to say that if tomorrow you do not do what I demand of you, we will press the ‘red button.’
“I am convinced that in such situations, decision makers have an idea of what we are talking about. Nobody wants a nuclear war.”
He added that Russia possesses weapons “that will have serious implications for the handlers of the Ukrainian regime.”
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