According to an influential mainland magazine, multiple sightings of Type 094 submarines surfacing in the Taiwan Strait may indicate that the PLA’s nuclear submarines are having technical trouble.
Attack submarines are designed to seek and destroy enemy submarines and surface ships, project power ashore missiles, carry out Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions, support battle group operations, and engage in mine warfare. Attack submarines must maintain stealth and operate undersea for the mission’s duration.
Experts have raised the question of why Chinese nuclear submarines surface repeatedly. There is no strategic or tactical benefit to surfacing nuclear submarines unless the submarine has some mechanical problem and wants to go to the bottom of the ocean. China had nuclear submarine mishaps in 2018, 2023, and 2024.
The sightings also suggest that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has at least two ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) with four crews showing the Chinese flag to another submarine and passing by ships.
The most recent series of sightings were in mid-June when a PLA submarine with a hunchback body shape was seen by Taiwanese fishermen just west of the strait’s median line, the report said.
The vessel’s profile suggested it was a Type 094, a nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine.
The report quoted witnesses as saying that a surface warship followed closely towards the mainland, and the submarine did not submerge again.
The median line is an unofficial boundary that splits the 180km (112-mile) waterway, separating the self-ruled island from mainland China. Beijing does not recognise the line.
With an average depth of just 60 metres, complex terrain, and active underwater volcanoes, the Taiwan Strait is dangerous for submarines. According to the magazine, submarines risk being stranded, colliding, or attracting the attention of an anti-submarine capability presence.
Yet in November 2021, commercial satellites spotted another PLA ballistic missile submarine on a surface voyage in the strait and escorted by a ship.
The vessel was heading north from a PLA naval base in Yulin, in southern China’s Hainan province, and likely headed for Bohai Shipyard in Liaoning, in northeastern China. Similar witness reports were also made in 2020.
Chinese nuclear triad is in question after repeated mishaps.
The report was part of a series of articles to mark the 70th anniversary of the PLA’s submarine force and its author was only identified by the name “Ma Ke”.
Today’s nuclear triad consists of ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) armed with submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and nuclear-capable heavy bomber aircraft capable of delivering gravity bombs and cruise missiles. China’s three-pronged military force structure is now in question.
Commenting on the June transit, the author said it was unusual for a ballistic missile submarine to surface –the vessels are meant to be as stealthy as possible when on duty and can stay months underwater.
The submarine was spotted in an area of water only 45 metres (148 feet) deep—particularly dangerous conditions for a heavy-tonnage submarine such as the Type 094 to submerge in.
The report said it was unlikely the submarines surfaced because of a malfunction given that it happened a number of times. Going through the Taiwan Strait instead of the Bashi Channel or Miyako Strait east of Taiwan was also a shorter route from the South China Sea to the shipyard in the north for routine maintenance.
“Rather than risking a pointless underwater passage, it would be better to surface openly and sail normally under the protection of escorting ships,” it said.
The Type 094 ballistic missile submarine – which bears the NATO code name Jin-class – was regarded as China’s “first sea-based nuclear deterrent” by the US Department of Defence when the ship entered service in 2007. It now forms a core part of China’s nuclear capability.
According to the Pentagon’s 2023 China Military Power Report, the PLA Navy has operated at least six nuclear-powered SSBNs.
Its 12 JL-2 ballistic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, have a range of about 7,000km (4,350 miles) – meaning they could hit the northeast of the United States from off the Chinese coast.
The latest version, Type 094A, which has been active since 2020, reportedly carries more JL-3 ballistic missiles, which have a range exceeding 10,000km, putting almost all of the American mainland within striking distance from the South China Sea.
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