Russia is struggling to field any substantial number of Su-57s. Deliveries of new Lockheed Martin F-35 ‘Lightning’ stealth fighters to the US and allied militaries have resumed after a year-long pause. And on the other side of the world, Korean Aerospace Industries in South Korea is building the first batch of KF-21 stealth fighters.
However, in Russia, the production of the Sukhoi Su-57 fighter—Nato reporting name ‘Felon’—has stalled. And there’s one main reason why.
“It’s clear that Russia’s military industry heavily depends on Western components, particularly electronics,” explained Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analysis group.
Sanctions put into place by Western governments in the 31 months since Russia widened its war on Ukraine have throttled the supply of this critical hardware. As a result, “production of the Su-57 is in jeopardy,” Frontelligence Insight concluded.
The single-seat, twin-engine Su-57 is Russia’s answer to the United States Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, a big, fast fighter with radar-evading qualities. It’s meant to replace old Mikoyan MiG-29s, Sukhoi Su-27s, and variants in Russian air force service.
The Su-57 first flew in 2010, 20 years after the Raptor—the world’s first fifth-generation stealth fighter—first flew. Over the next decade, Sukhoi’s workers hand-built 10 test models. In 2019, the Kremlin signed a contract for 76 production jets, apparently for around $50 million per copy.
But where Lockheed churns out more than 150 fifth-gen F-35s a year, Sukhoi has struggled to produce a fraction of that number. The Russian firm delivered the first ten production Su-57s to the Air Force in 2022 and another 11 in 2023. So far this year, Sukhoi reportedly has handed over just a few additional planes.
In the meantime, the Russian Air Force has lost two Su-57s – one test model and a production jet – to crashes. A Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Akhtubinsk State Flight Test Center in southern Russia in June destroyed at least one additional Su-57 on the ground.
It’s possible that, 14 years after the type’s first flight, there are slightly more than 30 Su-57s in the Russian inventory, a third of them test models potentially lacking some of the planned electronics. That’s a paltry force for an air arm that deploys around a thousand front-line fighters and has lost a hundred of them in action over Ukraine since February 2022.
Strikingly, the delivery rate for new Su-57s seems to have dropped significantly between 2023 and 2024. Normally, delivery rates for new fighter types increase year on year for a given multi-year order as workers gain experience and economies of scale kick in.
The Su-57 is an exception to that rule. It’s apparent that, with targeted sanctions, the United States and its allies have blunted the Russian air force’s modernization.
Scrutinizing Russian documents, Frontelligence Insight discovered some of the main bottlenecks, including an attenuator called the WA36 and power supplies designated PLR7 60-12 and EA-PS 3150. These components are part of the MPPU-50, a German-made device for calibrating the communications systems on the Su-57.
Where once Sukhoi could legally import MPPU-50s and parts for MPPU-50s, now it must acquire them illicitly from third parties. “Considering that Russian military production continued to expand in 2023 and 2024, it’s clear that they find ways to smuggle key components or purchase Chinese replacements to maintain production,” Frontelligence Insight noted.
But the illegal importation takes time, effort, and money. It has slowed the production rate for new Su-57s and likely increased the per-plane cost.
As long as 2020, at least one Russian commentator urged the Kremlin to reconsider its aviation modernization plan. “Instead of trying to make a dozen ‘gold’ Su-57s over several years, you can replace the old [MiG-29s] with new MiG-35s” – an updated MiG-29 – “with modern avionics, excellent weapons and the Zhuk radar with an active phased array,” the commentator wrote for VPK, which covers the Russian defense industry.
“The MiG-35 has become more economical, which is also of great importance,” the commentator added. The case against the Su-57 and for renewed production of older and simpler jet types is even stronger now that Russian industry is struggling to source critical foreign components.
But even a Russian pivot to less sophisticated fighters would represent a victory for Russia’s foes. The Su-57 program was supposed to help the Russian Air Force catch up to the US Air Force. But it’s taking so long for Sukohi to build a tiny number of Su-57s that the Americans are pulling farther ahead, technologically speaking.
The US Air Force already defines requirements for a new stealth fighter to replace its 180 F-22s. This new Next Generation Air Dominance fighter could take flight before the Russians finally take delivery of the 76th and last Su-57 from that initial production order.
© 2024, GDC. © GDC and www.globaldefensecorp.com. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this site’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to www.globaldefensecorp.com with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
