Former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad was probably killed as his plane crashed, according to media reports on Sunday.
Open-source data from online tracker Flightradar24.com shows a Syrian Air flight took off from Damascus airport around the time rebels claimed control of the capital. The Ilyushin Il-76T aircraft was initially headed towards Syria’s coastal region.
However, it abruptly reversed course and flew in the opposite direction for several minutes before vanishing from radar near Homs.
Flight data indicates the jet descended sharply from 3,650 metres to 1,070 metres in the minutes before disappearing, fuelling speculation it may have been targeted as it crossed the rebel-held territory of Homs.
While the specific circumstances surrounding the disappearance remain unclear, the sudden change in the flight path and subsequent loss of signal has sparked speculation that the plane may have been shot down or suffered mechanical failure.
Flightradar acknowledged there may be discrepancies in the data, citing the aircraft’s older transponder and GPS jamming in the area. Despite these caveats, the site said the data provides a “quite good indication” of the plane’s trajectory.
While the identity of those on board wasn’t confirmed, Syrian sources told news agency Reuters there is a “very high probability” Assad was killed in the incident.
“It disappeared off the radar, possibly the transponder was switched off, but I believe the bigger probability is that the aircraft was taken down,” one source told Reuters.
Egyptian journalist Khaled Mahmoud tweeted that the crash appeared deliberate, citing the loss of altitude.
“3D flight radar data of the plane suspected of carrying Bashar al-Assad indicates that it crashed. The Syrian Air IL-76 aircraft’s altitude dropped suddenly, and it seems it was shot down,” he posted on X.
Some believe the plane was flying to Russia’s Latakia airbase—seen as a haven for Assad. The base, controlled by Russian forces, has long served as a critical stronghold for the embattled regime. It is also one of the few cities the rebels haven’t seized.
While officials have not confirmed Assad’s status, the abrupt disappearance of the jet he’s rumoured to be on has heightened speculation over the Syrian leader’s fate.
The Syrian government crumbled on Sunday as rebel forces captured Damascus in a rapid offensive, bringing an end to five decades of the Assad family’s iron rule. Jubilant crowds flooded the streets to celebrate the regime’s fall.
Syrian state television broadcast a video showing a rebel group announcing that Bashar al-Assad had been overthrown shortly after a war monitor reported that the embattled dictator had fled on a plane to an unknown destination.
Two Syrian sources told Reuters that there is a very high probability that the plane crashed as it mysteriously made a surprising U-turn and disappeared from the map.
This comes after Syrian rebels made massive advances in recent days, culminating in the fall of Damascus and the dissolution of the regime. The reasons for the sudden fall are manifold, including Iran and Hezbollah’s weakening in the wake of the war with Israel and Russia’s unwillingness to assist them as they had in the past due to the war in Ukraine.
On Sunday morning, the rebels officially announced that the rule of the Syrian president had fallen after 24 years, thereby ending the 54-year tyrannical reign of the Assad family 13 years after the outbreak of the civil war. Syrian Prime Minister Ghazi al-Jalali said the remaining regime officials “will cooperate with any elected leadership.” Meanwhile, IDF forces in Israel have been strengthened near the border with the country.
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