A symbiotic relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel is within reach. It could be of huge mutual benefit.
Often overlooked in discussions about a possible Abraham Accords deal with Saudi Arabia is the fact that the kingdom is more than halfway through a vastly ambitious and extremely costly redevelopment program called Saudi Vision 2030, initiated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in 2016.
The benefits that a normalization deal with Israel could bring to the program could be vital in helping MBS meet the goals he has set himself.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is less than 100 years old. It was only in 1932 that Abdul Aziz ibn Saud emerged from many years of political and military struggle against the Ottoman empire and other local chieftains, and was able to name the area he had conquered “Saudi Arabia,” and proclaim himself its monarch.
It was doubtless with an eye to the eventual centenary celebrations of the monarchy and the kingdom that, in April 2016, MBS launched Saudi Vision 2030, an ambitious plan to revitalize the nation state. If it succeeds, by 2032 Saudi Arabia will have been transformed from virtual total dependence on oil revenues into a modern, liberalized, thriving society, its prosperity underpinned by flourishing industrial, financial, economic, and commercial sectors.
When first announced, Saudi Vision 2030 envisaged, among hundreds of initiatives, privatizing entire sectors of the economy, cutting subsidies, courting investors at home and abroad, streamlining government services, and going public with the national oil company, Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer and most profitable company.
This last step was achieved in 2019 when Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO) raised $29.4 billion, the largest in history. Yet, only 1.5% of the company was sold to the public; the Saudi state and its sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, still own 98.5% of Aramco.
The most recent progress report, published in April 2024, marked the eighth anniversary of Vision 2030’s launch. A major aim of the program is to achieve economic diversification, and by 2024 non-oil GDP was already contributing 50% to the economy, a record high. To reduce the kingdom’s dependence on oil, Saudi Arabia is also investing heavily in renewable energy projects. The kingdom has become the fastest-growing renewables market outside China.
The program also includes nearly 50 large-scale construction and development projects aimed at transforming the nation’s infrastructure. A cornerstone of Vision 2030 is Neom, a $500 billion futuristic city situated in the northwest of Saudi Arabia. Envisioned as a hub for innovation and sustainability, it aims to incorporate smart city technologies and renewable energy sources.
Recent reports indicate that Neom is facing significant financial challenges, with rising costs and delays leading to concerns about the project’s feasibility. This is one obvious area where Israeli hi-tech could help the development.
The Red Sea Project is an initiative focused on developing a luxury tourist destination along Saudi Arabia’s west coast. With environmental conservation built into the concept, it features resorts across an archipelago of pristine islands and inland sites. When all phases are completed it will comprise 50 resorts offering 8,000 hotel rooms in addition to more than 1,000 residential properties.
SAUDI ARABIA hosts millions of Muslims each year on their Hajj pilgrimage to the holy city of Mecca, but Israeli expertise in global, as opposed to Islamic, tourism could be of invaluable assistance in realizing the project.
Positioned near Riyadh, Qiddiya is envisioned as a vast entertainment city, encompassing theme parks, sports facilities, and cultural venues. It aims to become a major tourist destination, contributing to the diversification of the economy.
Construction of a variety of parks, performing arts centers, sports stadiums, and other projects is forging ahead, with several attractions planned to open well before 2030.
Recently announced, the Mukaab is set to be the largest building in the world, featuring a unique cube-shaped design. It is part of the New Murabba development in Riyadh and aims to offer a mix of residential, commercial, and entertainment spaces. Construction has commenced, with the first phase expected to be completed by 2030.
MBS’s “MiSK City,” it is claimed, will be the first non-profit city of its kind in the world. It aims to be focused on youth, to empower young people and develop their skills, and to support young entrepreneurs.
A Saudi normalization deal with Israel could have profound implications for Saudi Vision 2030, positively affecting economic growth, regional stability, and technological advancements. For example, Israel is a global leader in cybersecurity and artificial intelligence, while Saudi Arabia aims to be an active AI player by 2030. Collaboration in these fields could accelerate Saudi Arabia’s digital transformation.
Given Saudi Arabia’s desert environment, Israeli expertise in desalination, water conservation, and desert agriculture could enhance food and water security, aligning with Vision 2030’s desalination projects and sustainability goals.
Saudi Arabia, its urban centers sited between Israel and the Gulf, could become a logistics hub, linking Israel to Gulf markets, particularly through Neom, the planned hi-tech city near the Red Sea.
Increased Western and Israeli investment
A FORMAL Saudi-Israel relationship could open the door to increased Western and Israeli investment in Saudi Arabia, particularly in sectors such as technology, cybersecurity, and renewable energy, helping the kingdom achieve even greater economic diversification.
Just as in the case of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a normalization deal could bring Israeli tourists flooding into the country, and Israel becoming a key tourist market, helping the program’s aim of increasing tourism’s contribution to GDP to 10% by 2030.
A Saudi-Israel deal would likely be accompanied by US security guarantees and incentives, such as advanced defense systems, security guarantees, and potential support for Saudi Arabia’s civil nuclear program, boosting Vision 2030’s energy sector and reinforcing Saudi’s position as a regional power.
Saudi Arabia has historically tied normalization to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Any viable deal would need to take this position into account.
President Donald Trump’s recent suggestions regarding Gaza’s future have not, as yet, touched on future Palestinian autonomy, but thinking on this matter is fairly advanced by the Global Alliance for the Implementation of a Palestinian State and a Two-State Solution, a body co-chaired by Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide.
The alliance, launched in September 2024, has convened multiple times to advance the idea of a development program, phased over several years, leading toward Palestinian sovereignty. The mere existence and continued activity of the alliance may be sufficient to allow the process leading to an Abraham Accord deal to proceed.
Saudi-Israeli normalization could undoubtedly help Vision 2030 reach its objectives by attracting investment, fostering technological growth, and expanding tourism.
The pace at which these benefits might accrue would inevitably depend on a variety of factors, but the potential for a Saudi-Israeli partnership of enormous mutual advantage could certainly follow the formal induction of Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords.
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