Key points:
- Sheikh Hasina declined American offers to strengthen Bangladesh military
- Sheikh Hasina wanted to hand over Cox Bazar airbase to India under the influence of Indian RAW
- Sheikh Hasina wanted to weaken and corrupt Bangladesh’s military by offering military businesses
President Trump’s rising popularity among right-leaning young students in the small South Asian nation of Bangladesh presents a significant opportunity and a notable cultural shift. A great power competition between the United States and China led to the “Bangladesh First” awareness, which followed the “America First” movement in the United States.
Following the fall of the ultra-left-leaning Awami League government after the July Revolution, a new right-leaning political party, the National Citizen Party (NCP), was established on February 28, 2025. This marked the first student-led political party in Bangladesh’s history.
For Bangladesh, a strategically located South Asian nation, these shifts demand careful analysis and a proactive approach to managing its bilateral relationship with the U.S. While Trump’s first presidency (2017-2021) introduced a “transactional” approach to diplomacy under the “America First” doctrine, his potential comeback could exacerbate existing challenges and create new opportunities for Dhaka.
The U.S. administration is likely to substantially impact ties between Bangladesh and the United States, encompassing politics, the economy, migration, strategic and security relations, climate change, and humanitarian cooperation.
In contrast with the Biden administration’s moral and ideological emphasis on democracy and human rights in U.S. foreign policy, Trump is more pragmatic and transactional. The interim government of Bangladesh, under Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, was formed in August after the popular right-leaning uprising.
BD-USA Relationships
A high-level U.S. delegation met with the head of Bangladesh’s interim government, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, to reaffirm their “dedication to fostering inclusive economic growth,” according to the U.S. Embassy in Dhaka.
Yunus took over after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country last month amid a mass uprising. She was accused of corruption, violation of human rights and excessive use of force against the protesters.
Security cooperation and Abraham accord
Bangladesh also failed to capitalize on the Trump Administration’s Abraham Accord initiatives to normalize relations with Israel, which would have brought significant economic and security benefits to the country.
Officials said the United States has expressed interest in equipping the Bangladesh Armed Forces with its military hardware, taking into account its importance for regional security. The U.S. Army’s deputy commanding general for the Pacific made a 24-hour visit to Dhaka.
In a brief statement issued late on March 25, the U.S. embassy said that Lieutenant General Joel ‘JB’ Vowell met with his Bangladeshi armed forces counterparts during his visit, reinforcing the U.S. Army’s commitment to a strong relationship with the Bangladeshi military.
General Joel ‘JB’ Vowell warned Bangladesh Army General Waker-uz-Zaman of the potential spill of Myanmar’s internal conflict into Bangladesh as the Arakan Army takes control of Myanmar’s Rakhine state.
They highlighted “shared security interests and ongoing collaboration” and discussed the “potential acquisition of US-origin equipment to enhance interoperability and capabilities”.
The acquisition of two Hamilton-class cutters in 2013 and 2015 and the authorization of over $14 million in defence articles to Bangladesh through DCS in FY2021 demonstrate the U.S.’s commitment to the military modernization of Bangladesh.
In FY2021, the U.S. approved the permanent export of over $14 million in defence articles to Bangladesh under the Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) mechanism. The items include aircraft, assault rifles, military electronics, ground vehicles, fire control systems, lasers, and imaging and guidance equipment for the military.
According to the U.S. Department of State, Bangladesh has received $78.45 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and $14.5 million in International Military Education and Training (IMET) assistance since 2014. With the U.S.’s assistance, Bangladesh has acquired patrol boats for its army, navy and coast guard, and mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicles for international peacekeeping missions. In two phases, Bangladesh received 50 Mine-Resistant Ambush-Protected (MRAP) vehicles under the Excess Defense Articles (EDA) programme in 2019 to provide additional safety to its peacekeeping troops in Mali. Additionally, the U.S. Army delivered 46 additional MRAPs with 11 mine rollers to Bangladesh in 2021.
Under the Global Peace Operations Initiative (GPOI), the United States has contributed nearly $44 million since 2005 to support training and equipment upgrades, enhancing Bangladesh’s peacekeeping capabilities. Besides, the countries have been participating in security dialogues and joint exercises like Exercise Tiger Shark, CARAT, Exercise Shanti Doot, and Exercise Pacific Angel for years. These joint initiatives aim to expand partnerships in humanitarian and security aspects between the two countries and the region.
During Trump’s first tenure, the U.S. tried to use defence diplomacy to “woo” Bangladesh away from China. At the time, U.S. Secretary of Defence Mark Esper phoned former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, proposing to help modernize Bangladesh’s military by 2030. The U.S. offered Apache attack helicopters, Boeing Super Hornets fighter jets, and missiles.
Sheikh Hasina primarily wanted to satisfy Indian interests but declined to cooperate with Washington and Tokyo. Sheikh Hasina wanted to weaken Bangladesh’s military by accepting offers to purchase third-grade Indian and Russian arms. Sheikh Hasina wished to offer India the Cox Bazar airbase under the influence of Indian RAW,
For some unexplained reason, Sheikh Hasina refused to cooperate with the U.S. Navy on Indo-Pacific challenges in favor of China. Sheikh Hasina also turned down the U.S. offer to safeguard Bangladesh’s exclusive economic zone, the Saint Martin Islands, and Cox’s Bazar with the help of U.S.-supplied arms.
Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina decided not to sign the ACSA and GSOMIA agreements with Bangladesh’s most significant economic partner, the USA. So, no major arms sales deal was formalized during Trump’s first tenure.
Bangladesh should use U.S. defence equipment to counter the capable Myanmar military and Arakan Army. Talks between the two countries are highly likely to revive during the second Trump presidency, possibly including the signing of these agreements.
President Trump is more likely to sign military cooperation agreements with Bangladesh and export high-quality weapons to Bangladesh as the Trump administration did for Turkey and Saudi Arabia. U.S. arms exports to Bangladesh will also contribute to the U.S. trade surplus with Bangladesh, favoring Trump’s ‘America First’ policy.
Impact on the economy
The U.S. and Bangladesh have a significant, growing trade relationship. The U.S. is a major export destination for Bangladeshi products, particularly ready-made garments, and a substantial source of imports for Bangladesh. The United States is Bangladesh’s largest export market and a significant source of foreign direct investment (FDI). Bangladesh relies on the United States for scrap iron, raw cotton, machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and vaccines.
The U.S. pharmaceutical companies provide life-saving medicines for Bangladeshis who suffer from counterfeit drugs.
The total goods trade between the U.S. and Bangladesh was estimated at $10.6 billion in 2024. U.S. goods exports to Bangladesh in 2024 were $2.2 billion, down 1.5 percent ($34.0 million) from 2023. U.S. goods imports from Bangladesh totalled $8.4 billion in 2024, up 1.1 percent ($89.3 million) from 2023.
The ongoing China-U.S. trade war will likely escalate under Trump. Dhaka can capitalize on this by expanding its RMG exports to the United States if rival products from China are subject to new tariffs.
The way forward
Considering all the factors involved, Bangladesh should prepare for the second Trump presidency. Bangladesh should enhance its political, security and diplomatic engagement with the United States under the Trump administration and inform the U.S. of its views on its internal and international outlook.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh should strive to strengthen its economic and security partnership with the United States under the Trump administration and shield itself from the impact of geopolitical changes. Similarly, Dhaka should emphasize to the U.S. its support for a free, open, secure, and peaceful Indo-Pacific region. It should also enhance its military-strategic cooperation with the USA while carefully avoiding Trump’s tariffs.
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